Brewers at the Break

The Brewers cruise into the All Star Break in a first place tie with STL, only the third time in their history they've been in such a lofty perch at this point in the season. They finished strong by taking three of four from division rival CIN...and doing it without all-star LF Ryan Braun. So all is good, right?

What tempers my enthusiasm for the Crew winning four of the last five is the tentative nature of the wins, particularly the three v. the Reds, all of which were by a single run. They needed furious bottom of the ninth rallies to win two of those games; that was great theater and highly entertaining, but one might say they were lucky to win. 

 

Even with the strong close to the first half, Milwaukee is just six over in what appears to be a wide-open NL Central. Following the break they begin a brutal stretch, facing what could be a season-determining 11 game road trip starting on Thursday night. While the Brewers have the best home record in baseball, they face the top three teams in the NL West -- AZ, CO and SF -- all away from Miller Park. The road has not been kind to the Crew this season as they've posted just 16 wins and won only 36% of their games.

It says here the Brewers will need to win five of those 11 roadies. If they can do that, they return home five above sea level and probably still in the race with the worst part of their schedule behind them--that should be good enough to give them a chance to reach the post season. But if they pull some sort of 3-8 pratfall, I won't like their chances going forward.